Market forecasts are not linear. Multiple new factors will arise to influence the outcome. China’s $1.1t portfolio is only 5% of the total US debt (US$22T). However it’s the power of the marginal sellers/buyers that moves the market. In this case,...read more
Speculation about China selling its US treasury holdings in retaliation to US tariffs has resurfaced in recent days. While most pundits and polls dismiss the idea, it pays to take a contrarian view. As stated my 17 Oct 2018 email, it will happen when China has ‘no...read more
With US-China tensions escalating, I looked back at my newsletter on this topic, emailed on 26 Sept 2017, to see what’s changed. The email is repeated below as it is still relevant, but with technology leadership (especially 5G) now a key focus for both nations. I’ve...read more
You may have seen President Trump’s tweets early Monday morning, Australian time. 25% tariffs will be implemented on $200b of Chinese imports this Friday, (from 10% previously) and $325b of currently untaxed Chinese imports will be hit by 25% tariffs ‘shortly’....read more
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. A ‘Game of Thrones’ when traversing the Aus-China corridor. SIV update.
The proverb, “in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king,” is fitting when it comes to investing, or seeking investors, in the Aus-China sector. Fake news, biased news & no news frequently leads to investor paralysis, unless they have access to a leading...read more
The rise of the ‘China angle’ is our next event focus, driven by seven catalysts: Capital controlled by Chinese-Australians are now being redeployed in a wider array of investments, not just property. Downward asset revaluations after decades of ‘it can only rise’...read more
Subscribe to our newsletter
Our newsletter explores the following themes
- The growth and power of China’s ultra-HNW is greater than the late-1800s US ‘robber barons’ and the UK taipans & industrialists of the mid-1800s
- However, the angst generated is similar (for their ruthlessness, power, & moral ambiguity, whether real or perceived), until time and philanthropy turns them into ‘high-society.’
- China’s HNW will become stronger global forces as the ‘China Dream’ eventuates. Their money will influence asset values and popular culture in the West
- Volatility is part of this disruption. The US suffered its Great Depression during its rapid global ascendency in the 1900s
China’s 1-party rule AND the acceleration of technology voids comparisons to the rise of the ‘democratic West’ in the 1800s and 1900s. We are in uncharted waters when analysing China’s rise.
- China’s society and economy is changing rapidly. The anti-corruption & anti-extravagance crackdown, the move towards mass entrepreneurship & innovation, the focus on a consumption-led economy, and the reformation of Chinese societal values makes for interesting times.
We search the globe to produce insights on ‘China Disruption’
Our challenge, as collators and synthesisers of information from multiple sources, are:
- Information overload on China is increasing. What to include & what to leave out?
- Biased reporting (either pro or anti -China) needs to be reassessed
- Stories that depict extreme examples as the norm needs to be recalibrated
- Popular media often write emotive & passionate stories to evoke stronger reader responses (to increase readership and revenues), sometimes at the expense of accuracy. We remove the emotion and add insights so that the information is useful rather than passionate (making for dull reading…so our apologies in advance)
We look forward to staying in touch and informing you via our complimentary newsletters of the opportunities from the ‘China Disruption’ investment theme.