We’ve tracked the number of advertisements for property sales and rentals (residential & commercial) over the past 15 months.
Our data dispels several popular views about the property market.
2nd Aus-China Property Developers Conference, June 8, Sydney – please visit www.basispoint.com.au/property-conf-2016/ for details and to register
We used publicly available data from a dominant property advertising website in Australia.
The charts below are to early January 2016. Our charts to present day will be presented at our June 8 Aus-China Property Developers conference.
Commentary
14,000 residential properties were advertised in Sydney’s metro area in March 2015. By mid June 2015, at the height of the property buying frenzy, ‘supply’ dropped 11% to 12,400 advertised properties. Ads surged to more than 20,000 by Nov 2015, fell by early January 2016 but has increased above the January lows as of 11 May.
Meanwhile, the number of residential properties for rent has ranged between 14,000 to 16,000 during most of 2015. But as of 11 May 2016, its at the lower end of the range, suggesting there is no ‘over-supply’ of rental properties just yet.
In Melbourne, the charts show fewer properties advertised for sale compared to March last year, which mutes some of the ‘over-supply’ stories.
While in Melbourne’s rental market, the number of properties advertised for rent has risen by January 2016. However, numbers are down again as of 11 May, suggesting there is no over-supply of rental properties (yet?)
In the commercial sector, this chart shows the number of adverts for strata offices for sale in Sydney CBD. The supply of available properties for sale has dropped by nearly half, (as SMSFs and other investors seek yield plays in commercial property, and as supply vanishes as blocks are consolidated for future redevelopment)
The chart below shows the number of strata offices for lease. Up by nearly 50% in nine months. SMSF investors will likely face weakening yields as office rents fall due to high supply, which will weaken their investment strategy for a strongly yielding investment!
Data weaknesses
The charts above show trends in advertisements, but if source of the data (a leading Aust property website) is losing market share to its rival website, then the strength of the statistics are weakened. However, we dont believe this to be the case.
The data is not seasonally adjusted. (eg more ads for rental properties as leases for overseas students expire and are not renewed).
Chart updates to be released at our property conference
Meanwhile, we hope you can join us at our Property Developers Conference, which has a ‘China impact’ theme, June 8, Sydney. (Half day event plus cocktails. $360 plus GST)
This will be our 5th major event in the Aus-Chinese private wealth and property development sector. We attract 300+ mostly C-level delegates per event.
Early bird registrations end on Friday 20 May
Finally, we welcome our new silver sponsors EstateMaster and Telstra to our Aus-China Property Developers conference.
They join our gold sponsors, Gadens, and MBM, and silver sponsors Coverforce and One Investment Group, and our supporting organization, the Urban Taskforce, as well as our 12 panellists from leading Aus-Chinese property developers and fund managers.
Please register now for our 2nd Aus-China Property Developers Conference www.basispoint.com.au/property-conf-2016/