Get ready for fast and furious times as geopolitics, infrastructure capex, Chinese capital changes, and a property downdraft generates esoteric opportunities and challenges.
Below is my partial list of China-factors that will impact business and investment portfolios this year.
At my Aus-China Preparing for Pain and Gain in Western Sydney seminar on 20 March, Wednesday, Parramatta, sponsored by Deloitte, I will be covering key factors on this list and how they will interact with the $100 billion in infrastructure and capital spending earmarked for Western Sydney over the next two decades.
In addition, a panel of expert speakers will cover:
- non-bank lenders and the changing property cycle in Western Sydney where many Chinese and Australian developers are facing their first ever property downturn.
- what are the strategies for HNW investors as well as developers to handle this new environment?
- are we seeing ‘blood in the streets’ and is there more to come?
Panel 2 will address new trends in Western Sydney such as:
- the rise of Asian eat streets that are changing retail landscapes,
- the possible emergence of “another Bicester” that could draw more Asian tourists than the Opera House,
- and agribusiness/property/education/medical/parent tourism opportunities from the coming Badgerys Creek airport, & lessons from the ‘other new airport’ in Australia.
Preparing for Pain and Gain seminars will be held in other states over the coming months, tailored specifically to local opportunities and threats.
Meanwhile, due to demand, my Crazy Rich in a Trumpian World seminar is back –this time in Melbourne on 12 March, Tuesday, sponsored by Deloitte.
Many of the points covered in our Crazy Rich Sydney seminar have since taken place or are now being talked about.
BasisPoint’s partial list of Chinese influences that will impact on business and investment portfolios this year (in no particular order of importance).
Feel free to use this information to design your own ‘mud-map’ to identify opportunities and threats.
- The slowdown in outbound Chinese capital and China’s economy.
- Economic and geopolitical similarities; Trump and Reagan (1981 to 1989 against the then rising Japan and the ‘evil empire’ USSR).
- Recycling Chinese capital already out of China (that is not repatriated).
- Critical mass. Chinese in Australia –overjoyed, overhyped and over here. High-vis tourists vs low-vis locals = mistaken identity and politics.
- Immigration trends and overseas students in Australia – impact on dwelling demand, parent/friend tourism, Australia’s brand image, demand for Australian food and experiences.
- Japan of the 1980s/90s is not China of today. Size and one-party rule makes comparisons challenging.
- China’s levers are being pulled to fend off the US trade war. Tax cuts, SME lending resumed, go-aheads on stalled infrastructure projects, domestic consumption encouraged, technology buildout.
- China’s demographic destiny will be changed by technology (e.g. automation, medtech) & urbanisation…but time is of the essence.
- Property price data mismatch. Timing of data-capture is based on settlement. Off-the-plan property bought 2 years ago (at peak prices) are settling only now, influencing ‘current’ data.
- Australian rental vacancy rates – the new equilibrium is nearer 2% not 3%. Landlords preparing for pain ahead as new apartments are completed.
- Forced sales or hype from vested interests.
I look forward to seeing you at either (or both) seminars!