China is 15% away from US decoupling, dumping US treasuries and dumping Dollars. It has also set a bear trap for Yuan short sellers, with a coming short squeeze only a brass monkey can withstand. The ballsy US is aware of this and has a finger on a financial nuclear...read more
Market forecasts are not linear. Multiple new factors will arise to influence the outcome. China’s $1.1t portfolio is only 5% of the total US debt (US$22T). However it’s the power of the marginal sellers/buyers that moves the market. In this case,...read more
Speculation about China selling its US treasury holdings in retaliation to US tariffs has resurfaced in recent days. While most pundits and polls dismiss the idea, it pays to take a contrarian view. As stated my 17 Oct 2018 email, it will happen when China has ‘no...read more
With US-China tensions escalating, I looked back at my newsletter on this topic, emailed on 26 Sept 2017, to see what’s changed. The email is repeated below as it is still relevant, but with technology leadership (especially 5G) now a key focus for both nations. I’ve...read more
You may have seen President Trump’s tweets early Monday morning, Australian time. 25% tariffs will be implemented on $200b of Chinese imports this Friday, (from 10% previously) and $325b of currently untaxed Chinese imports will be hit by 25% tariffs ‘shortly’....read more
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. A ‘Game of Thrones’ when traversing the Aus-China corridor. SIV update.
The proverb, “in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king,” is fitting when it comes to investing, or seeking investors, in the Aus-China sector. Fake news, biased news & no news frequently leads to investor paralysis, unless they have access to a leading...read more
Our newsletter explores the following themes
- The growth and power of China’s ultra-HNW is greater than the late-1800s US ‘robber barons’ and the UK taipans & industrialists of the mid-1800s
- However, the angst generated is similar (for their ruthlessness, power, & moral ambiguity, whether real or perceived), until time and philanthropy turns them into ‘high-society.’
- China’s HNW will become stronger global forces as the ‘China Dream’ eventuates. Their money will influence asset values and popular culture in the West
- Volatility is part of this disruption. The US suffered its Great Depression during its rapid global ascendency in the 1900s
China’s 1-party rule AND the acceleration of technology voids comparisons to the rise of the ‘democratic West’ in the 1800s and 1900s. We are in uncharted waters when analysing China’s rise.
- China’s society and economy is changing rapidly. The anti-corruption & anti-extravagance crackdown, the move towards mass entrepreneurship & innovation, the focus on a consumption-led economy, and the reformation of Chinese societal values makes for interesting times.
We search the globe to produce insights on ‘China Disruption’
Our challenge, as collators and synthesisers of information from multiple sources, are:
- Information overload on China is increasing. What to include & what to leave out?
- Biased reporting (either pro or anti -China) needs to be reassessed
- Stories that depict extreme examples as the norm needs to be recalibrated
- Popular media often write emotive & passionate stories to evoke stronger reader responses (to increase readership and revenues), sometimes at the expense of accuracy. We remove the emotion and add insights so that the information is useful rather than passionate (making for dull reading…so our apologies in advance)
We look forward to staying in touch and informing you via our complimentary newsletters of the opportunities from the ‘China Disruption’ investment theme.
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Past Event Sponsors
Investing in an age of superpower rivalries: asset allocation in volatile times – Sydney | 15th November 2019
To Get Rich and then Give…is Glorious. Aus-China Philanthropy and a Social Licence to Operate – Sydney | 8th November 2019
Driverless Micro-Cars: From China to Sydney & Beyond – Sydney | 28th October 2019
Rise of the China Angle – Perth | 22 May 2019
Rise of the China Angle – Brisbane | 10 May 2019
Preparing for Pain and Gain in Western Sydney | 20 March 2019
Crazy Rich in a Trumpian World – Melbourne | 12 March 2019
Crazy Rich Asians in a Trumpian World | 22 October 2018
Queensland Opportunities from Aus-China Investment: Seminar – Lunch | 23 November 2017
Aus-China Property Developers, Investors and Financiers Lunch | 20 November 2017
WA Opportunities from Aus-China Investment: Seminar | 4 October 2017
Aus-China Film Investment Conference | 4 September 2017
Volatility and the Markets Lunch – Seminar | 25 August 2017
Significant Investor Visa – Chinese in Australia Lunch Seminar | 3 May 2017
Non-Bank Financing and Lending Opportunities in the Australian Property Development Sector | 22nd September 2016 | The Westin Grand Ballroom
Aus-China Property Developers and Investors Conference | 8th June 2016 | The Westin Grand Ballroom