现在中国有三大因素正极大地影响澳大利亚市场，从房地产到油桃贸易。这三大因素是什么？
- 新的外汇管制政策
- 中国中产阶级消费者群体的演变
- 中国住房市场
在上一周的资讯消息中，我们讨论了中国新的外汇管制政策，以及它们对澳大利亚投资和房地产的影响。本周，我们来看一看中国的中产阶级消费者群体和住房市场的情况。
中产阶级消费者
虽然中国整体经济增速已从两位数滑落到6.5%左右，但是增长方式从外需向内需的转变正在让消费性开支迅速扩张。麦肯锡一项被广泛引用的研究预测个人消费性开支每年增长10.3%，由上中产家庭主导（每年收入超过2万2千美元的家庭），其增速为每年22.4%。累计算来，中国城市家庭个人消费性开支将由2012年的2万亿美元增长到2020年的5.3万亿美元。
因为中国消费者的购买喜好，这些新增财富将深刻影响澳大利亚市场。一些最大的赢家是：
教育
毫无意外，中国的留学生数量比其他任何一个国家都多。
根据中国教育局的数据，2015年有45万9千8百名中国学生出国留学，比2014年增长11.1%。其中绝大多数（92%）为自费留学，这意味着学费和其他费用都是由留学生家庭支付。
澳大利亚在中国海外教育市场中不容小觑，2015年有4万6千4百名中国留学生在澳大利亚的大学、学院和学校学习，相比2014年增加了23%，而2016年的增速很可能在相近水平。中国留学生数量占到澳大利亚留学生总数的将近三分之一。
旅游业
我们预计2016年将有150万中国游客赴澳旅游，比2015年增长15%。这些游客基本上因家庭而来——他们认为旅游，仅次于购物，是“花时间陪伴家人的一种极好方式“。极为重要的是，中国游客的花销是各国游客中最高的，平均每人每次访澳的花销在8千美元，仅零售购物一项便占到2千5百美元。
虽然澳大利亚仍然是最受中国游客欢迎的目的地之一，但是他们也一致反映澳大利亚存在酒店住宿有限、餐馆和商店缺少导购以及对中国消费者不甚了解等问题。
食品
中国人将可支配收入用于食品的花销比美国人多一半（19% 相比12.5%）。根据贝恩一项关于2000名购物者的研究发现，相比其他国家，中国人“有1.6倍更有可能将澳大利亚与健康和营养联系到一块，而不是美国、德国、日本和韩国，有2.5倍更可能将澳大利亚和与‘天然’有关的词汇联系到一起”。这一偏好从中国对澳大利亚牛肉、海鲜和水果需求的飞涨便可看出。
医疗和养老
虽然在2010年中国的健康服务仅是一个1400亿美元的市场，但到2020年这一市场将增长到4380亿美元。人口和经济拉动了这一增长。因为独生子女政策，中国正在迅速老龄化，人口的平均年龄每年老去125天左右。因为品味变化加上有更多的可支配收入，虽然2010年中国中产阶级家庭在医疗和养老方面的平均开销仅为261美元一年，但是到2020年这一数字将增长到1335美元。
中国的住房市场
中国在过去40年创造的财富中，有相当一部分被投入到国内房地产市场，许多人现在疑问这是否是一件好事情。中国房产所有权的基础是不稳固的——所有的所有权是通过一个70年土地使用许可实现的，而日期从地块正式由农业用地转为住宅用地之日算起。40年前这似乎是一个遥远的问题，但是今天许多人想知道到了到期的那一天会怎么样。
还有一个广为流传的观点认为中国正在经历前所未有的房地产泡沫，兼具高不可攀和一文不值的威胁。正如一位苏州的朋友告诉我说，“中国一线和二线城市的居民担心自己买不起房，而三四线城市的居民则担心手里的房子变得不值钱”。
与此同时，中国投资者通常没有太多投资选择。中国的银行常常给出低于通货膨胀水平的利率，这为寻找其他方式保值积蓄造成很大压力。国内的其他选择很有限，往往要承受隐性风险。中国股票市场可以礼节性地被描述为与潜在的经济事实相脱节；而近几年激增的点对点借贷则与庞氏骗局十分类似。
正因为这些，中国人将眼光投向了自然风景优美、与中国地缘相近、政治稳定、且法制透明的澳大利亚。中国人愿意花高价在澳大利亚置业的原因是：1. 他们能（从以上列举的种种中）感受到很多额外价值，澳大利亚人已经习惯了不当回事的价值，以及2. 中国中产阶级没有太多投资选择。此外，永久所有权（相比70年产权）对中国人来说相当有吸引力。而与一二线城市极高的房价相比，海外更贵的物业似乎也成了便宜货。
除了市场的兴衰，今后几年这些因素将继续令中国人对澳大利亚房地产市场保持高水平的投资兴趣。
以下是关于以上主题精选的系列文章（更多内容将于我们的“投资&经济综述会议”发布）:
China home prices, property investment likely to rise in 2017
Financial Review, 8 January 2017
China’s average home prices were forecast to rise 4.1 per cent in 2017 from the previous year, and growth in property investment would rise 5.4 per cent, a state-owned newspaper reported last week.
China’s housing market has clearly entered a downturn
Business Insider, 13 December 2016
China’s housing market has clearly entered a downturn, primarily because of a government push to slow rampant price growth in some of the nation’a largest cities. That’s the view of Wei Li, China and Asia economist at the Commonwealth Bank, who says that data released on Tuesday suggests that market conditions are cooling.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chinas-housing-market-has-clearly-entered-a-downturn-2016-12
China’s Soaring Housing Market Finally Takes a Breather
Fortune, 18 November 2016
China’s runaway housing market is slowing down ever so slowly, in what amounts to an early win for Chinese officials worried about its steep rise.
http://fortune.com/2016/11/18/china-housing-prices/
China’s Housing Market Isn’t in a Bubble After All
Bloomberg News, 16 October 2016
China’s housing market is starting to resemble a Bermuda triangle for economists: time and again the smartest forecasters wade in only to get it wrong.
That’s the view of Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong, who describes the latest talk of a housing bubble in the world’s second biggest economy as a recurring myth.
Fixing China’s overheated property market
Financial Review, 23 October 2016
There is never a dull moment in China’s property market. In August, surging demand led to scores of people lining up to file divorce applications in Shanghai because separated couples can buy more houses. Then in the first week of October, Chinese cities rolled out new measures to cool the home-buying frenzy that has seen prices skyrocket, marking a new round of tightening since policies were eased two years ago.
The rotten foundations of China’s real-estate market
Economist, 15 October 2015
Just over a year ago, policymakers were having conniptions about China’s tumbling stockmarkets. Now it is China’s frothy property market that is causing worries at home and abroad.
Chinese property prices skyrocket, leaving many wondering if they will ever own a home
ABC News, 13 October 2016
As property prices in China’s biggest cities skyrocket and the Government moves to rein in the bubble, an entire generation increasingly despairs over their chances of ever owning a home.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-13/chinese-property-prices-skyrocket/7928534
China’s housing market is going nuts again
Business Insider, 15 September 2016
China’s housing frenzy is still very much alive. Credit growth roared back, with medium and long-term new loans to households in August, which are comprised of mostly mortgages, jumping 32.2% year-over-year. That’s the fastest pace of growth since 2010, and suggests homebuyers are trying to get ahead of the game as they expect further tightening of housing and credit regulations, according to a note led by Credit Suisse’s Ray Farris.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chinas-housing-market-is-going-nuts-again-2016-9?r=US&IR=T
Mapping China’s middle class
McKinsey Quarterly, June 2013
The explosive growth of China’s emerging middle class has brought sweeping economic change and social transformation—and it’s not over yet. By 2022, our research suggests, more than 75 percent of China’s urban consumers will earn 60,000 to 229,000 renminbi ($9,000 to $34,000) a year.
http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/mapping-chinas-middle-class
The Modernization Of The Chinese Consumer
McKinsey, March 2016
The eyes of the world are on the Chinese consumer. Cooling economic growth, a depreciating currency, and a gyrating stock market are making political and business leaders concerned that China’s economic dream may have finally ended, and tough times lie ahead. Despite the gloomy news about the state of the economy, consumer confidence has remained surprisingly resilient over the past few years, as salaries have continued to rise and unemployment has stayed low. Chinese consumers remain upbeat about their futures.
http://mckinseychina.com/the-modernization-of-the-chinese-consumer/
China’s Middle Class, the Middle Minority
CKGSB Knowledge, 28 September 2016
A significant new force is beginning to take shape in Chinese society; Chia’s emerging middle class.
http://knowledge.ckgsb.edu.cn/2016/09/28/all-articles/chinas-middle-class/
Meet the Chinese consumer of 2020
McKinsey Quarterly, March 2012
Most large consumer-facing companies realize that they will need China to power their growth in the next decade. But to keep pace, these companies will also need to understand the economic, societal, and demographic changes shaping the profiles of consumers and the way they spend.
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/asia-pacific/meet-the-chinese-consumer-of-2020
China’s growing middle class our mega-market
The Australian, 9 April 2016
China buys one-third of Australia’s exported products and one-seventh of our traded services, and is our No 1 market.
The Chinese Overseas Education Market
Gentleman Marketing Agency, 24 October 2016
The Chinese overseas education market is the largest in the world with more Chinese students studying abroad than any other country. According to data from China’s Ministry of Education, 459,800 Chinese students went abroad in 2015, an 11.1% increase compared to the year before.
http://marketingtochina.com/chinese-overseas-education-market/
Chinese student boom hits new record
Financial Review, 20 May 2016
Almost 50,000 Chinese students started courses in Australian universities, colleges and schools this year, up 23 per cent on last year, making students from China more important than ever to the booming education export industry.